WSJ: Harmonix to be Auctioned to One of Four Companies
If you’ve been living in a cave the past week, you may have missed that news the Harmonix’s corporate parent Viacom announced it will be selling our favorite video game developer. In the past few weeks, Harmonix has released not one but two games to very high critical praise, Rock Band 3 and Dance Central. While some of their detractors tried to point out the causality for the sale was the flop of Rock Band 3, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Harmonix has been quietly shopped around since September, well before either game was released.
The Wall Street Journal also gives us word that Viacom is now in talks with as many as four different videogame companies and private-equity firms to host an auction for Harmonix, according to people familiar with the matter. No word yet on who they may be, but as soon as further developments arise, they will be posted here.
[Wall Street Journal via AllThingsHD]
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This whole thing continues to make me sad. I hope for a positive outcome though.
Croq Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 7:04 pm
Me too, and I remain optimistic that HMX will come out of this okay.
EA to buy HMX!
Xzyliac Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 9:50 am
EA can barely afford their rent right now (literally). If EA buys HMX I think we’re in for trouble. HMX will have to make a lot of cuts in content and employees to adjust themselves to EA’s budget.
You have to remember Rock Band is a franchise where you’re risking losing money every single week. I’d be very shocked and bothered if EA bought Harmonix.
EA, Activision, Apple?
Google? lol
Miguel Reply:
November 16th, 2010 at 11:19 am
Google wouldn’t be completely out of the question, especially with Google Music around the corner.
If Microsoft doesn’t pick this up, they’re morons. It makes way too much sense.
They already own a stake of Harmonix (that’s one of the reasons HMX plays so nicely with 360), RBN is a shining example of the power of XNA, Lips is failing miserably alongside Sony’s rather popular SingStar, Dance Central is currently one of the premiere Kinect titles, they have the money to invest into such an expensive franchise (plus the really expensive part of getting the franchise off the ground is over so they’re getting a deal), and Microsoft uses Rock Band to expose people to DLC on Live all the time.
I’m not at all happy about the idea but unless there’s some legal reason that they can’t my money is still on Microsoft.
cmg4894 Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 10:12 am
I have been saying this since I heard last week. It would make the most sense. But those afraid of 360 exclusive shouldn’t be for Rock Band, maybe a timed thing but an out right exclusive would never happen. With Dance Central, I picked up KINECT on Saturday and that was one game I saw all over the place.
Jond76 Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 10:24 am
I agree. Microsoft seems obvious. I also think it would be good for both franchises.
Explosion2 Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 10:31 am
While it works wonderfully for Harmonix, it would definitely suck for people who play rock band on the Wii or PS3. All that money spent on DLC and plastic instruments, wasted!
WASTED!
*sobs uncontrollably*
Croq Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 10:34 am
That’s assuming that MS would make it 360 exclusive, which I doubt they would for RB3 and any remaining DLC that comes out for it. I think it would be stupid for them to drop them at this point.
I think that where it would make more sense for MS to “cut the cord” would be in any future version of RB.
Explosion2 Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 10:41 am
…which would still be a game I would want, and would likely still be compatible with old songs and instruments, which I would have none of, because I play on PS3.
Croq Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 11:59 am
Agreed, but if it were with MS, they would need to determine whether it made sense to make it console specific in the future. It seems to make sense to keep it cross-platform, but who knows what they’ll want to do?
KEWB Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 12:16 pm
With the rhythm game genre in the state it’s in, keeping RB console exclusive may earn Microsoft a little more money if they picked HMX up, but it would be catastrophic for HMX and the genre in general. Granted, with MS owning them, they could sink more money into them, but you would still have a lot less people playing, which would make MS’s investment wasted money. I’m no analyst, but I don’t really see how that could work any other way. Hopefully if MS picks them up then they’ll feel the same way and know that keeping the game on all three consoles would really be in their best interest. They might lose a couple of 360 sales from the few players who would switch over for RB and the new console buyers in which RB would sway them to 360, but keep in mind they would also be making money from games sold across three systems instead of just one.
comp Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 3:53 pm
Anyone thinking that if Microsoft buys Harmonix they will continue support for the PS3 & Wii is kidding themselves. It would never, ever happen. I do mean never.
Skydog Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 12:23 pm
You know it would make it worse to make it exclusive.
A) They’d lose a lot of sales (DLC & Disc Games), because that’s 2 consoles they could have gained sales off of.
B) People wouldn’t upgrade to the newest RB if just MS owned (From the other 2 consoles.. I know i wouldn’t).. Meaning the new RB’s would sell just as bad.
C) I would be switching to GH (sadly).
rodz Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 12:51 pm
If MS buys HMX I would stop buying anything for RB immediately. It’s obvious that it would be an exclusive game, there’s no point in spending money in a dying product (RB for PS3 that is). If Sony or Nintendo bought HMX I would recommend the same for owners of the other consoles.
If such tragedy happens than my primary rhythm game becomes DJ Hero. And even though I don’t like it as much as RB, I wouldn’t have any problem playing GH too.
Xzyliac Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 2:26 pm
In theory they lose a lot of sales. In reality though you have to wonder if it’s worth it. Okay let’s say they lose those sales and let’s assume Wii and PS3 sales are decent enough that that actually matters. In return you get some kind of financial stability (I stress “some kind”), you get more access into the platform that houses what is arguably the bulk of your fanbase, and you spend less money on trying to get your stuff to work on all consoles.
These are all semantics and overgenerilizations but the loss of sales is probably not a huge deal at this point. What’s more important is finding someone like Viacom who was balls deep in cash and multimedia access and isn’t a Nazi when it comes to letting their smaller houses do what they need to do. Believe it or not, Microsoft fits that description pretty well. Does Microsoft keep it’s devs on a leash? Yeah. Just look at Rare. But then turn around and look at Bungie, who Microsoft even let off the leash eventually. It can go both ways but I’m confident that Harmonix is managed well enough, critically acclaimed enough, and popular enough that should Microsoft buy them they won’t go the route of Rare who, honestly, was in shambles when Microsoft bought them. Rock Band is at the height of it’s acclaim and it shows.
As for your second concern assuming a Microsoft owned Harmonix still stays multiplatform at least for Rock Band 3 compatible DLC, by some magical (or legal) force, I can’t see that many people backing out of upgrading. IF, again IF, the game still sees digital support across all platforms I think it’s silly to stop buying Rock Band games just because future disc titles may be 360 exclusive (unless a fourth entry fucks up DLC compatibility). Now that’s a big “if” but in the Harmonix universe stranger things have happened.
But still, when it comes to sales I don’t think that’s a defining factor in a Microsoft bought Harmonix. For one thing, for Harmonix, I doubt they get much of a say. And even still when you’re a studio like Harmonix the majority of your pay doesn’t come from consumers, it comes from the guy who owns you. Even as Harmonix was sucking money out of Viacom they were still a pretty well paid studio. As long as you look good enough your overseer is going to keep paying you.
For Microsoft it’s all about taking sales from everyone else and expanding their reach into the market. Harmonix essentially is the music game market at this point. Whoever controls Harmonix can basically claim control of the entire genre as far as the people who have a stake in that genre (regulars like us) are concerned.
Croq Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 2:27 pm
I am not posting that I want exclusivity, just that if MS were to buy HMX and choose to make it exclusive, when it would likely make sense for them to do that.
I totally agree that you want all the consoles involved in future versions.
To be honest, I’ve got my bet on it being Activision. I just hope that if I’m right, that they don’t shelve RB, and that they’ll take on HMX’s “music library” approach versus their much more limited implementation of that type of approach.
rodz Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 3:07 pm
I think that for MS it makes sense to go exclusive. If I were MS and bought HMX the fist thing that I would do was to make it exclusive, I wouldn’t even bother supporting RB3 on other systems. Almost 70% of RB’s installed base is on 360, it’s not like HMX is losing too much revenue just cutting PS3 and Wii. Some of those PS3 and Wii user might even change to Xbox and buy everything again.
I think that Activision is in a really good position here. First option: they can buy HMX and do whatever they want with RB platform, including just give RB code to another company develop on top. Secondary option: MS buys HMX and make the game exclusive, then Activision has the monopoly for PS3 and Wii for rhythm games.
Skydog Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 9:43 pm
No one would change and buy everything again.. that’s a stupid suggestion. I have $1000 worth of DLC.. that’s not WORTH rebuying.. I’d rather switch to GH.
Not losing much revenue? are you seriously that dumb?
They’d lose MILLIONS, and in a MUSIC gaming industry that’s a lot with how much they have to license each year.. you guys would get LESS DLC, and your disc games would suck.
The more you say “MS needs to buy just because I have a XBOX and you can rebuy all your dlc and switch over” makes you sound ignorant.
Croq Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 11:26 pm
If I were in your position, and I knew that my console was not going to be supported any more, I’d probably do the same thing. I have more invested in DLC than you do, so changing to play RB on a different console just wouldn’t work. So, I totally agree with you *if* MS were to buy HMX *and* they were to make it 360-exclusive.
We don’t know if MS is even a potential buyer, so I don’t think it’s worth getting upset about, at least not yet. People have suggested that it’s logical that MS would be taking a look, but at this point, the only ones that know who the potential parties are at this point are Viacom, (possibly) Harmonix, the individual companies that are interested, and whoever else is directly involved in the negotiations.
Anything else regarding companies that may or may not be involved is pure conjecture.
Xzyliac Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 10:14 pm
I don’t think anyone is saying they wouldn’t lose revenue. I think the question is would it really matter? I say no. It would matter if HMX is the kind of company that hops from publisher to publisher. When there’s a Big Brother involved the rules change a little. Especially when that Big Brother is a console developer.
That said I repeat for my case at least that I think a console exclusive, MS owned, Harmonix would suck shit. But it makes sense.
They have a company that has revolutionized the rhythm game genre consistently since 2005, and they’re selling it in the wake of their most highly-acclaimed and revolutionary title to date? Sounds like a decision only a committee of old, out-of-touch businessmen could make.
Xzyliac Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 10:18 am
Rock Band is a financial black hole. It would’ve been 15-20 years before Viacom made that money back. Not to mention videogames are the last thing on Viacom’a agenda. They don’t need it. They have a hundred other cheaper sources of money with greater returns. It doesn’t make sense for them to keep pouring money into Harmonix.
Not to mention as the article pointed out HMX has been on the market since September.
Harmonix has always been unmistakably one of the greatest critical successes of the last 10 years. But on the flip side they’ve also been one of the most expensive developers of the last 10 years. Couple the size of Rock Band with the huge wads of money that are commonly thrown around in the music industry, money that’s almost unheard of in the videogame industry, and you get a pretty large price tag that constantly grows.
I love Viacom for what they allowed HMX to do, I don’t think anyone else would have given them so much freedom and so many benefits on something so risky, but realistically it only makes sense that two part ways.
It was a great marriage but it wasn’t going to last. I don’t think Viacom is out of touch. I applaud Viacom for all they did. But they’re a business.
Explosion2 Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 10:33 am
“They have a hundred other cheaper sources of money with greater returns.”
like Jersey Shore.
*sigh*
Cactaur Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 11:45 am
Oh the ignorant masses.
Xzyliac Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 2:28 pm
Or like South Park, the people who make fun of Jersey Shore for everyone else.
It’s difficult to escape Viacom’s ever extensive reach.
FU-FU-FU-FOOLIN
In Canada I saw ZERO advertisements for RockBand 3. None. Eb Games had a PowerGig advertisement on their site. Most people didn’t even know it was out on Oct. 26th or that it involved a keyboard.
Gotta spend money to make money.
Croq Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 10:42 am
If Harmonix has been “for sale” since September, it’s not too surprising that Viacom wouldn’t spend a whole lot of money to advertise it. Why pour money into something you have already decided to sell off?
tinykoko Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 11:46 am
ive been seeing rb3 ads ALL. THE. TIME. all over TV and on the radio (we’re in Ohio). we watch a lot of Vh1 classic, and theyre owned by mtv, which is owned by viacom, and various versions of rb3 commercials have been running 24/7 since before launch.
maybe the game was only marketed to their core (american?) audience.
*shrug* my two cents.
citric_bullets Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 12:13 pm
We also haven’t seen a single RB3 ad anywhere other than MTV/VH1 and that one on Comedy Central that one time. It didn’t even get down to Nickelodeon channels.
Plainclothes Man Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 3:49 pm
FX shows the RB3 commercials. Seen them while watching Its Always Sunny.
AzureAngel17 Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 7:26 pm
I’ve seen a ton on Discovery too.
KEWB Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 12:20 pm
You would still want to advertise it so that it sells well. What looks better, trying to sell a company that made a game that just sold 500,000 copies in it’s first week or a company that made a game that just sold 100,000 copies in it’s first week? Which is going to make more money off the sale?
Xzyliac Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 5:28 pm
But they have been spending money. Every Tuesday they spend money.
Excellent point about RB3 and its possibly poor sales not being the driver for selling off HMX. If they’ve been “on the market” since September, they likely were talking about it way before then. Wouldn’t surprise me if Viacom had at least mostly decided to sell HMX way back in the spring.
I would love to know who the four suitors are.
Plainclothes Man Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 11:10 am
I think RBA is a suitor
Croq Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 12:00 pm
There’s an idea. We could have an RBA coalition to purchase HMX! I could probably toss in like a hundred bucks…
Have there been any hard sale figures released for RB3 yet? I haven’t seen any. Whatever those numbers may be, I knew they couldn’t be the reason for the sale. No decision that big happens that quickly in a corporate monster like Viacom.
RockBandAide Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 12:48 pm
Did you miss this part from the post above? “… the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Harmonix has been quietly shopped around since September, well before either game was released.”
Shmoo Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 7:39 pm
NPD releases sales figures tomorrow (11/16), so we way get some indication of sales then.
Colin Reply:
November 16th, 2010 at 4:19 pm
No, I didn’t miss the point of the post. Just saying that I knew the sale wasn’t due to RB3 sales before anyone told me so. I’m also damn curious to know any sales numbers for RB3, since folks are saying it’s underperforming/flopping. I haven’t seen anything that confirms this except the very initial UK figures, which aren’t so reliable since they cover such a a brief period. It’s like everyone saying GH:WOR has flopped based on “monthly sales” info that only covers 3 freakin’ days.
EA, Activision, Ubi/Konami, MS.
EA is in on it because it’s a property of theirs so they’re going to make an effort to keep it (though they might not win it).
Activision likely in on it to fold in their major competitor.
MS is in on it to try and buy up a company making one of the bigger critical hits of the Kinect lauch.
Ubi/Konami are the last ones, who would be looking to up their status in the music game industry.
Aw Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 7:00 pm
EA is the only one of those companies I’d be willing to support.
Well, maybe Ubisoft. But definitely not Activision or Microsoft.
What if… in a shocking twist VALVE bought them? No one would expect Valve to buy them. They do seem to have a good relationship with HMX but they rarely buy any companies that i know of (other than that one originally developing Left4dead). This could mean a PC version of RB3 too! Dunno just thinking of crazy ideas…
Whizzer Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 1:19 pm
RB3 for the PC would be great. It would mean a lot of freedom for Harmonix. I might consider a switch. All my instruments will still work, so it’s only the cost of the games and DLC themselves.
Xzyliac Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 5:30 pm
I would shit my pants in joy.
BassFuzz12 Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 5:48 pm
… And You just made my day.
(I agree with you, BTW)
Jacob Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 9:06 pm
Honestly, that might not be crazy enough to work, but crazy enough to make me excited at that far-off possibility.
Croq Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 10:58 pm
Don’t toy with me…
Microsoft would be missing a huge opportunity to not buy HMX.
Skydog Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 9:37 pm
An opportunity to make a company fail? Such a great opportunity!
killer_roach Reply:
November 16th, 2010 at 10:45 am
As I’ve said before, Microsoft’s corporate culture doesn’t assimilate large teams well. If Microsoft buys Harmonix, Harmonix would be dissolved to a point where it would basically just be the name and be staffed by a couple dozen Microsoft engineers. Their internal turf wars are brutal for outsiders.
Personally, I’ve lately been more and more of the opinion that Harmonix’s buyer is likely to be a private equity firm, although the end result is likely almost as disastrous as if they were bought out by Microsoft.
I’m not seeing an RB4 coming up in the next few years or two regardless of who buys them, and this is coming from somebody who bought all of the games and over 300 DLC. Too much money and not enough sales.
I mean, just look at the deserted scoreboards! The 360 scoreboards hardly scratch 1500* people, and PS3 + Wii come up to about 700*!
Hopefully, this new owner means that they’ll advertise more than JUST ON MTV. Maybe then an RB4 will seem reasonable.
*Source is Rockband.com, numbers may not be accurate as they are rounded off.
T Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 3:56 pm
Did it ever occur to you that the scoreboards online are truncated? Not to mention that RB3 introduces the concept of one band per profile, so multiple people playing on a single copy/gamertag no longer can seperate their scores by band.
Microsoft won’t buy a money-loser like HMX even if it makes the most critically acclaimed game for Kinect. Good reviews don’t pay the bills and the bills for 200+ employee software development studio in Boston are excessively high.
Activision has the resources to buy Harmonix, either move the developers to California (only slightly less excessive than Boston) or fire all of them after buying their IP outright, and make “Guitar Hero Ultimate” (or something to that effect) for Christmas 2011.
Schlagwerk Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 4:43 pm
That’s a terrifying reality. I can vouch for the high cost of living in New England.
Mccrae Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 5:44 pm
Oh hay another Scott McC
Microsoft,if they keep exclusivity, would make more money than without exclusivity. They would sell more hardware AND wouldn’t have to license to 3 systems
Plainclothes Man Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 4:19 pm
And then it would be kinect ready! Now you can throw up Maximus.
Aw Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 6:56 pm
They would sell more hardware? Says who?
How many people do you think are really willing to dump their PS3/Wii hardware and jump ship to 360 if Microsoft buys Harmonix?
Skydog Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 9:36 pm
I would not.
$50 a year for a piece of shit console is not what I’d jump to.. I’d jump to GH for Harmonix doing a stupid move… and stick with my OLD RB’s and not buy anymore DLC. (so therefore I’m not really losing my $1000 of dlc)
Shmoo Reply:
November 16th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
You having a bad day, Skydog?
I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.
Are there sales figures for RB3? How do we know it’s such a flop?
T Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
We don’t. It’s just the fandom doing what it does best…reading into stuff it knows little about and predicting doom and gloom at every turn.
On the official forums there’s a number of people already blaming Beatles RB and Green Day RB for this.
Croq Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 11:01 pm
Blaming Green Day RB makes some sense, its sales were pretty horrible.
Beatles RB sold very well, actually outsold GH5 in the US (if not overall, then it was ahead for a while). I really wish it had sold even better though and that more people bought the albums, would have liked to get some others.
Shmoo Reply:
November 16th, 2010 at 12:32 pm
This is the point of blaming Beatles/Green Day.
Viacom likely got into this sector to hedge bets on not missing the next big thing in music. Additionally there were the opportunities to tie-in marketing across their media channels, which they’ve done quite readily.
From a gamer standpoint – specifically a music game lover – Rock Band is a runaway hit and the best option in the marketplace for most. It could presumably hum along for years to come and fans would be happy. However, it’s not a money machine for Viacom.
When Green Day: RB was announced, many including myself thought it an odd choice. Green Day’s peak popularity was in the rearview mirror (American Idiot). They are not a “get” like Led Zeppelin, Rolling Stones, etc. that are practically woven directly into American/worldwide culture. If they spent a lot for rights, it can’t have been a great investment.
Beatles: RB was a gamble that clearly didn’t work out. This was a “get”, but the rights fees must have cost a minor fortune. The limited access to masters, necessitating flights overseas couldn’t have helped. Since DLC never reached phase two, one can only assume it was not profitable; DLC must not have been selling in high enough numbers. That could be due to:
Beatles: RB install base falling way short of expectations
B:RB DLC not having appeal for whatever reason
Consumers attracted to the genre for the first time unaware of DLC or the hoops to jump through with points, etc. (never underestimate the stupidity of the common person)
Regardless, if Beatles ended up selling similarly to GH 5 (my fave in the GH series, but clearly not as special as the Beatles), rather than 3 million, it must have been a financial flop even though it was a critical hit.
Look at the current generation of music games. I’d bet good money that Glee: Karaoke Revolution outsells Rock Band 3, despite a tired interface, some lame cutting room floor clips from the show and only a couple dozen tracks.
GH has tried a different approach each of the last three games only to see sales slip. RB has done nothing but fan service with each passing week and disc release…yet RB3 is neck and neck with GH:WoR and both are down from past releases.
I’m just hoping RB can exist with weekly DLC and a new disc every 1-2 years. It could possibly be profitable, but I’m not expecting a genre turnaround.
First of all, this is one of those times I wish I were a billionaire. I’d buy HMX, make them do a Nightwish 12-pack followed by a live track pack similar to AC/DC’s (fully exportable) then write them a blank check and let them do what they want.
Second, I think the RIAA should buy Harmonix. As much as they bitch about piracy, here’s a new medium that gets people excited to play music, piracy of Rockband tracks is at a very narrow minimum (compared to CDs), and it can teach you how to play real music. I’ve been saying for years that Rockband is the shot in the arm the recording industry needs after Napster/Limewire/Kazaa/the recession have bled them dry. A lot more bands need to sign on or be signed on as part of their contract. Albums need to be coming out in Rockband as well as on CD and Mp3. Bands like Led Zeppelin need to be strongarmed into supporting the new format or lose money. Because when the Napster craze hit, Metallica said something like “if only they asked us first” and nearly every other artist who wasn’t in favor of filesharing jumped on the bandwagon and said the same. Now Rockband is asking, and is offering to pay, and some of these bands are saying no. Metallica is one of them (being exclusive to Activision). And I think at the least they need to be called on it. If I had my way, anything you could buy on CD you’d be able to buy in Rockband.
Plainclothes Man Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 4:58 pm
I second that. I thought more known bands would have jumped at RBN, seems that bands still do not know about RB and what it can do to promote a new album/ older songs etc…..
Sure it may suck if M$ buys HMX, but at least HMX will still be able to continue as it has been with the obvious exception of whether or not there will be console exclusivity.
This is only a disaster waiting to happen if Activision buys HMX. It is then you can kiss Rock Band goodbye.
Skydog Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 9:35 pm
You can kiss RB goodbye with Console Exclusivity.. it will not last.
You people just don’t understand if they make “1 console gets all” it will not last… They’ll lose MILLIONS.
Croq Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 11:04 pm
Possibly, but I really don’t think it’s worth getting worked up about it. We don’t even know if Microsoft is one of the “as many as four”. That being said, if MS does buy HMX, then it’s pretty much up to MS what they want to do. If MS wants it to be exclusive, and they own HMX, then it will be, no matter how little sense it might make.
damn i hope this isnt the end of rock band i hope ever..
Activision or EA should buy HMX.
Also, I want my Justin Bieber full My World 2.0 album dlc.
Skydog Reply:
November 15th, 2010 at 9:34 pm
Than go buy Guitar Hero… Justin Bieber will most likely be on that first.
toymachine Reply:
November 16th, 2010 at 10:08 am
*looks at Video of Justin Bieber playing Dance Central*
*looks at picture of Justin Bieber with various Guitar Hero titles in background*
hmmmm
Management buy out? It would be nice if Harmonix actually owned Harmonix. I think the guys at HMX actually believe in and enjoy doing what they are doing and what better way to reward them other than giving them control over their own destiny? They can remain with EA partners who’ll continue to publish and distribute the game.
Anyway to those detractors talking about unit sales of RB3, there are various reasons not to worry about the slow start. Christmas is coming up.. the fact that RB is a platform for selling DLC.. it’s not a call of duty game and therefore it’s not supposed to sell like one..
Honestly, my best guess for the way this all plays out involves two words:
“Rock Hero.”
I see Acti buying HMX; giving back the Guitar Hero franchise to them (so long, Vicarious Visions….is there any evidence they’ve even *started* work on GH7 yet? Not bloody likely), and letting them mix the best features of GH and RB into a new monopoly….”Rock Hero.”
Featuring plastic guitars, real guitars, keyboards, double-bass drums, harmony vocals, open bass notes, ghost notes, slides, multiple instruments, online competitive gameplay, console avatars playable in-game, full character customization, and the ability to select which “gem” shape you prefer — circles or rectangles.
…and, miracle of miracles, chart compatibility between past GH and RB titles is discovered. For a whopping 50-buck transfer fee, you can fuse both your GH and RB libraries into one massive (Truly) Ultimate Setlist.
Rick Reply:
November 16th, 2010 at 9:21 am
As cool as that sounds, I think thats very very unlikely.
Too many overlapping songs to make your suggested transfer fee worth the money.
Also, it would be pretty much a brand new game. It doesn’t make sense to essentially start from scratch and try to brand a new game when both titles are fairly well branded already.
My guess is if Activision buys out HMX it’s not gonna change much. Both RB and GH games will both be made because in essence they are 2 different games that you can get 2 different experiences out of.
Croq Reply:
November 16th, 2010 at 9:33 am
I like your ideas, and I hope that if Activision does scoop up HMX, that at least some of what you’ve suggested comes true. It seems to me it would be dumb of them to just throw it all away.
Shmoo Reply:
November 16th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
My thoughts exactly, cherokeesam. Though evidence does point to GH7 under development as they’ve already announced a new Hero title for 2011. Could be Band Hero 2, GH 7 or something new, but they must have development underway.
One point to this debate…I think the only way the band/guitar genre continues would be if GH/RB stopped dividing the audience. Either one dies and the other lives on or they combine forces, the best of each.
Guitar Hero: Rock Band would be the obvious choice for a title, if Acitivision wins the bidding. Keep the original font for each and smoosh together. Then just add a number for each successive release.
Of course, this is only a true dream scenario if Harmonix takes 100% control of the combined franchise, they find a way to draw upon, at least, all existing RB tracks and import GH in as possible.
A major reason why this could work better than the current state of affairs…control/licensing. Rather than two platforms bidding for rights, signing exclusives, etc. you have one company approaching rights holders and saying “want to make some extra money? If not, go pound sand and we’ll approach the other 49 million bands in existence that are creating new hits every day.
To me, Activision buying Harmonix and letting Harmonix run the show is the runaway #1 best option for the near and long term. This is assuming Activision has learned from the past and would leave it the hell alone. They could just as likely buy Harmonix, utilize the technology and existing agreements and then bury the brand. From a business standpoint you couldn’t fault them…they sell as many copies no matter who is developing their titles currently. Sad but true.
I think Microsoft will get HMX if they are one of the 4 companies.
If HMX is getting “auctioned off”, that means they are going to the highest bidder.
Out of the liekly companies that keep coming up (MS, Activision, EA and HMX itself), Microsoft will be the one who will be able to pay the most money.
I think going to MS would be great and I don’t think it would limit PS3 and Wii users in any way. Microsoft is not stupid enough to limite a game to 1 console when there’s more money to be made across multiple ones.
Plus, there are many improvements that can be made to DLC with a Microsoft purchase. Not so much content related. But there would probably be a significant improvement to anything related to errors/glitches/etc.
Croq Reply:
November 16th, 2010 at 10:10 am
Just because MS *can* pay the most money doesn’t mean they *will*.
Rick Reply:
November 16th, 2010 at 10:13 am
True. But if they really want it, they can offer what would be the best offer. I never said the offer would be favorable to HMX or anything. This is all about Viacom getting all they can out of HMX.
killer_roach Reply:
November 16th, 2010 at 10:50 am
You’re delusional. If Microsoft buys a developer, it’s curtains for them making games on other systems. They let Rare finish a DS game they were working on, but that’s been it. Microsoft’s corporate strategy for their entertainment space is to create their own closed ecosystem in a manner similar to Apple’s… if you want movies, music, games, whatever, you’ll be locked in to getting it through their devices and only through their devices.
You might see a Rock Band game for the Zune HD if MS buys Harmonix, but beyond that, it’ll be 360-only. End of story.
Rick Reply:
November 16th, 2010 at 11:52 am
I’m not saying they wont do that, but you can’t assume they will either.
Microsoft is not the big dog that they once were. They’ve lost a lot of market share to Apple over the past few years.
It wouldn’t be the best business decision to close off Rock Band to only Xbox owners. Sales for RB3 have been slow across all platforms and I’m pretty sure MS knows that. So, I’m sure that they aren’t stupid enough to just pull PS3 and Wii out of the RB picture.
A more likely scenario would be any other title that HMX comes out with that isn’t a Rock Band Title would be Xbox exclusive.
Otherwise I’m not sold on the fact that MS buying HMX guarantees RB is Xbox only. It’s just not good business and last time I checked MS is not in the game to lose more money than it can gain.
cherokeesam Reply:
November 16th, 2010 at 12:50 pm
I’m not sure M$ would actually *lose* money by making RB a 360 exclusive. Yes, they’d lose two revenue streams, obviously, but they could also cut distribution costs tremendously by eliminating the PS3 and Wii. The game would be cheaper to make and distribute, so profit margins might actually be *higher* for a 360-exclusive title.
Not saying that it’s the *best* scenario (by any means), but I just think that (a) a 360-exclusive RB game wouldn’t necessarily cause M$ to lose money (and, again, cheaper production/distribution costs might create more profit), and (b) there’s not a snowball’s chance in hell that M$ would continue distributing product to Sony and Tendo. If M$ is the winning suitor, PS3 and Wii owners can kiss the game goodbye. (And M$ can kiss those two revenue streams goodbye.)
killer_roach Reply:
November 16th, 2010 at 2:00 pm
The porting costs are pretty trivial compared to the rest of the development costs, and most of the distribution costs have been shouldered by outside partners. Cutting off 40-50% of your revenue while probably cutting costs by 10-20% seems insane.
Not to say that it’s impossible, but it probably is if you expect there not to be massive personnel cuts at HMX. (Of course, if Microsoft were to buy HMX, a firing spree would be inevitable, and likely on the order of a near-genocide due to how infighting at that company works.)