There Can Be Only One?
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It sure has been an interesting 2010 so far. A few weeks ago, we learned about some not so good news for both the Rock Band and Guitar Hero franchises, and last week came comments from Activision CEO Bobby Kotick that he wishes he also acquired Harmonix when he obtained Red Octane and the rights to Guitar Hero.
Well, now it looks like some franchise mix-up speculation has begun, and frankly, I’m surprised it took so long. Up until the end of last year, it was not uncommon for the two franchises to take friendly potshots at each other. When comparing in-game features, or set lists, or even financial results, comments were being spun (or outright lied about) on how one respective franchise was better than the other. In comes 2010, and as some doomsayers have said, the music gaming genre is dying. Granted, I’ve got a vested interest to the contrary, but I believe in the down economy, newer casual gamers were less likely to invest $250 on a shiny, new bundle than in previous years.
But with the bad financial news, it appears that both franchises are preparing for the future. While I think if the Rock Band Network is successful, it has the potential to establish itself as a new, potentially permanent, form of music and media interaction. And Guitar Hero doesn’t seem to be preparing for the future, as much as bracing for it. With much of the attention on music gaming being negative thus far, it appears that a truce has been established between the two tribes, but why?
Now the folks at Kotaku have found a new blog post where speculation has begun as to what the future looks like for the franchises… from a potentially mutual perspective.
Here’s a quick summary:
- MTV Games wants the “platform war” to end.
- EA is unlikely to extend the distribution agreement with Viacom/Harmonix when it expires at the end of fiscal year 2011.
- Viacom is trying to reclaim $150 million it paid to Harmonix employees based on 2007 performance.
- Viacom wants to pay lower royalties for music included in Rock Band (3 and 4 combined: Viacom is making much, much less money from music games than they thought they would).
- Bobby Kotick said that Activision made a mistake not partering with Harmonix.
Excellent hypothesis, and like I said before, I’m surprised this wasn’t posited earlier. But unfortunately, I submit a different theory of what I envision happening…
Viacom purchased Harmonix for MTV Games, and whether they may not have been as financially successful as they intended, Rock Band does have the potential for excellent synergies with MTV and VH1, so I don’t see Viacom selling Harmonix anytime soon. And for Viacom, the majority of the sunk cost for Harmonix is there, so a long term relationship has the potential to outweigh the short term growing pains. Activision on the other hand doesn’t seem as confident as it used to be in Guitar Hero. For all intents and purposes, Neversoft and Red Octane have been sacked, and the future of the franchise is being put on the shoulders of the JV team, Vicarious Visions. If the varsity squad, Neversoft, couldn’t beat Harmonix, I have a tough time believing VV will, but nevertheless, the franchise according to Activision still has a future, for now. According to some wordsmithing by Viacom, Rock Band’s DLC model seems to be successful, but not successful enough, however is arguably better than Guitar Hero’s DLC platform. With Rock Band’s DLC platform to increase greatly once the RBN store goes live, I can only assume that Guitar Hero would like to have a piece of that action.
Now, I’ve always compared the RBN to iTunes in the way it provides content, and for my hypothesis, it still provides an excellent comparison. Similar to iTunes, you can only play Rock Band DLC within the Rock Band franchise. But what if iTunes was threatened with a dwindling market? Do you think they would open up their iTunes store so that users of non-Apple branded devices like the Zune could purchase and use content? Is it possible that in the future, Rock Band DLC could be cross-platform compatible? To take it a step further, could both franchises create exclusive, yet cross-compatible content?
I don’t think the idea is that crazy. Although we have two different engines, Guitar Hero and Rock Band are already capable of playing a different drum track based on what franchise’s drum peripheral is connected to the console. And this way, you could still remain loyal to your favorite franchise, but not miss out on the other’s tracks. If Rock Band and Guitar Hero both get the rights to a particular song, think of the efficiencies gained if only one programmer has to chart the song, instead of two companies! If you could buy Guitar Hero games (which had exclusive content to the franchise) and export them to Rock Band, and vice versa, it’s a win-win for all parties involved. Imagine playing Metallica and Van Halen in Rock Band, or Green Day (and possibly even Beatles) in Guitar Hero.
Where does EA fit in this? It is still unknown, but I don’t think joining up with your competitor makes the most sense just yet.
So… Will this format war end the same as the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD war, with a definitive winner and loser, or will it continue as an two-party market for the foreseeable future?
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Yea well I don’t really think that both will work together any time soon. I personally think it would cost too much to make the DLC compatible for both games, but I am no expert so yea. They could create a “blueprint” and give it to both developer studios so they could use it for their games. Honestly though…I am not sure if Activision is ready to swallow that bitter pill. Yea, I know it’s all about the profit. Actually, a thought just crossed my mind. Activision will look like an idiot either way. If they don’t work together with HMX they will probably lose a lot of money and if they work together with HMX/Via they will look like idiots because they didn’t purchase HMX when they had the chance.
I have almost all GH games but I am just not fond of Activision.
I am also liking the idea of exporting songs from one franchise to another but again, that is very unlikely. I think it is more likely that someone will chart those songs for RBN.
Yes, I am sorry, I am such a skeptic. I just don’t see how those two can fit together <.<
AFAIK the possibility of that happening isn’t too farfetch’d. Seeing as how customs for both GH and RB use .mid charts, it would be incredibly easy to have the Harmonix’s charts in Neversoft’s games, and vice versa. However, I don’t see it happening in the near future, or at all. There’s such a small window for profit and it all comes down to fanboyism on many new games, and if they combine and keep only one UI, engine, etc., all the fanboys on the side that loses will more than likely abandon buying new rhythm games.
Being a rabid player of Rockband, I sort of wonder how long the model can go. Personally, in a perfect world, I would like to see one set of hardware for Rockband. Not just universal guitars and drumkits, but one box to play on that would let me enjoy the rockband tracks and online play. Unfortunately, this model further expands the issues outlined above.
If the margins on selling music were not so razor thin, the argument would be much smaller. I think we’re quickly approaching an “event horizon” for the music industry and consumers. Someone’s model needs to change if distributors want to continue to make money
Kotick is a serious douche-nozzle. There’s no way HMX would let themselves get Neversofted.
It’s a utopian concept, GH and RB as an ice-dancing couple in Hades.
When there is no competition there is no juice. Look at satellite radio? Now that its one company with an average product who cares? Look at wrestling. Now that Vince owns the whole thing he had to create factions inside the WWE to generate competition. Competition drives ingenuity. When there’s no one to one-up where will the new features come from?
Looking at the individual elements:
1. MTV Games wants the “platform war” to end.
Well, that’s nice, but I’m not sure it means anything other than pointing to the financial reality that’s out there. Competing for available music is costly to the competitors.
2. EA is unlikely to extend the distribution agreement with Viacom/Harmonix when it expires at the end of fiscal year 2011.
I’m not sure how the writer came to this interpretation. EA doesn’t have any Rock Band titles on the schedule for FY11 because Harmonix hasn’t announced any. That seems fairly cut-and-dried to me. I imagine that there’s some extra expense in the distribution of Rock Band bundles, and the price continues to drop on these mammoth storage hogs, reducing profitability, so EA wanting out doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility to me.
3. Viacom is trying to reclaim $150 million it paid to Harmonix employees based on 2007 performance.
Worrisome, but not unexpected, and hopefully the shareholders accounted for the potential shortfall and didn’t spend it all on hookers and blow. Again, this doesn’t suggest to me that Viacom wants out (and thanks for explaining the 10-k stuff in your other post).
4. Viacom wants to pay lower royalties for music included in Rock Band (3 and 4 combined: Viacom is making much, much less money from music games than they thought they would).
This is only surprising to me in that they’re hitting up the music industry for their profit-increasing measures rather than the consumer. I do believe we’ll see an increase in DLC prices at some point. With the sales of actual games and bundles going down, the revenue has to come from somewhere. Ultimately, all we have here is bargaining. Viacom wanting more money doesn’t mean they’re ready to throw the whole enterprise away.
5. Bobby Kotick said that Activision made a mistake not partnering with Harmonix.
Means absolutely nothing, or at most, it’s the equivalent of MTV’s statements about a console war being bad for everyone. It would be silly for Kotick to refuse to acknowledge that Harmonix hadn’t made something of themselves.
Now the idea of having Activision contracting Harmonix to chart for their games makes sense for everyone. Activision gets an experienced team dedicated to rhythm games and not working on Tony Hawk or Ultimate Alliance half the time. Harmonix gets some much-needed revenue. Activision and MTV games are still free to make their own deals with record labels, and if the same piece of music gets licensed by the other brand, voila, 90% of the work is already done. Why wouldn’t that work?